Photo : NASA/Bloomberg
05 December 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #375
War in Ukraine: Day 283 & 284
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the Ground
On 03 December, Ukrinform reported on Austria’s Finance Minister Magnus Brunner announcement to provide support to Ukraine of upto EUR 20 million. The fund will be directed to Ukraine Recovery Trust Fund (URTF) in restoring public services especially energy sector.
04 December, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claimed on the completion of Ukrainian military training, called “Operation UNIFER” from the Canadian Armed Forces that took place in the UK. It reported that as part of the training the Ukrainians including “construction workers, bankers, accountants, mechanics, firefighters, engineers, chefs,” had learnt the basic skills along with lessons on “Armed conflict, battlefield casualty drills, combat first aid, field craft, marksmanship, explosive threat awareness and recognition, and both urban and trench warfare training.”
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 03 December, Meduza in reference to Financial Times reported on the increase in purchase of old tanker by anonymous buyers which was observed by the UK’s Braemar Shipping Services. They have found that the bought tankers which is 12 to 15 year old were being used to export oil to China, India and Other Asian countries. This is seen as “shadow fleet” as an alternative way around the energy price cap which restricts western shipping companies to help in transit of Russia oil to non-EU countries.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 03 December, Bloomberg reported on benefit Russia reaped from the stolen wheat from Ukraine. The report found that during the occupation, Russia had taken close to USD one billion worth wheat harvested in Ukraine as per the NASA food security and agriculture program satellite imagery. It said: “Almost 6 million tons of wheat was collected from areas not under Ukrainian control, according to NASA Harvest. About 88% of the winter crops planted in occupied areas were harvested, while unharvested areas were mainly along the front line.”
On 03 December, ISW a US based think tank has predicted that despite the pressure from Russia to launch an operation from Belarus into Ukraine the probability of Belarusian arms joining the Russian war seem to be low. According to the report: “…ISW has previously assessed that Belarus is highly unlikely to enter the war in Ukraine due to domestic factors that constrain Lukashenko’s willingness to do so.”
On 03 December, Deutsche Welle reported on the agreement between the EU, G7 and Australia over price cap on Russia’s crude oil. While Russia has responded saying “Will not accept,” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called it a “weak policy.” Along with the price cap, the EU has also agreed on a scheme to cut down the flow of Petrodollars to target the Russian revenue. This move is seen as a trigger to global shock on oil price as it will ban all the European shipping services to end its oil ferry operation in exporting the Russian oil. The US suggested an alternative to prevent the price shock by bringing an exception to leave out service providers who buy oil below the price cap to export to non-EU countries.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 03 December, Bloomberg reported on Microsoft projection on future cyber threat from Russia. According to Microsoft’s digital threat analysis center has warned its customers for possible Russian cyber-attacks during the winter. It mentioned “Prestige” as the recent ransomware attack by the Russian military intelligence and highlighted the simultaneous cyber attack on Ukrainian and foreign based supply chains. It added: “…foreshadow what may become broadening tactics during the winter ahead.”
On 03 December, in an interview World Bank Vice President Anna Bjerde estimated that Ukraine would need 500 to 600 billion for post-war reconstruction. She recommended for a “Marshall Plan” to bind public and private money to restore Ukraine. Bjerde also expects the drop in GDP to further increase from 35 per cent to 40 per cent due to infrastructure loss, and absence of tax revenues.
On 04 December, UNHR High Commissioner Volker Türk will start his four-day visit to Kyiv Kharkiv, Izyum, Uzhgorod, and other parts of Ukraine. He is expected to meet national and local government authorities to during the visit. According to the UN data 6,557 causalities have been recorded and 10,074 injured.
References
“Austria contributing EUR 20M to Ukraine Recovery Trust Fund,” Ukrinform, 03 December 2022
“In face of oil price cap, Russia building up "shadow fleet" to continue exports,” Meduza, 03 December 2022
Aine Quinn and Agnieszka de Sousa, “Bloomberg: Russia reaped $1B of wheat in occupied Ukraine,” Bloomberg, 03 December 2022
“UN High Commissioner for Human Rights to visit Ukraine – media,” Ukrinform, 03 December 2022
Ros Krasny, “Russia Is Boosting Its Cyber Attacks on Ukraine, Allies, Microsoft Says,” Bloomberg, 03 December 2022
“RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, DECEMBER 3,” ISW, 03 December 2022
“General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Facebook, 04 December 2022
von Jakob Zirm, “Ukraine: “The development of 15 years is erased”,” Die Presse, 03 December 2022
“Ukraine updates: G7 price cap on Russian oil kicks in,” Deutsche Welle, 04 December 2022
IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Bosnia and Herzegovina exported electricity over BAM one billion in 10 months
On 03 December, Sarajevo Times reported that electricity exports from Bosnia and Herzegovina in the past 10 months amounted to over BAM one million. This is a 56.7 per cent increase from 2021 where it amounted to BAM 952.5 million. Bosnia and Herzegovina imported electricity worth BAM 268 million which is 67.8 per cent more than in 2021. This increase in electricity revenue is largely attributed to high energy prices due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. (“The Export of Electricity from BiH exceeds One Billion BAM,” Sarajevo Times, 03 December 2022)
MALTA
Protesters across Valletta against amendment to abortion law
On 04 December, thousands of protesters hit the streets of Valletta voicing their anger on a proposal for amendment to abortion law. The proposal tabled in the parliament speaks about legalising abortion for women whose health and life are at risk. A doctor will determine the risk factor according to the proposal. The proposal also provides protection for the doctors and nurses who carry out the procedure. The protesters are against this proposal and say that the wording of the proposal is vague. Led by pro-life organisations, over 20,000 protesters gathered in Valletta holding placards saying “Zomm l-abort l'barra minn Malta" (Keep abortion out of Malta), "Ipproteġu lil uliedna" (protect our children) and "Jien m'għandix vuċi" (I don't have a voice). Malta’s former President Marie-Louise Coleiro Preca, archbishop Charles Scicluna and Nationalist Party leader Bernard Grech, joined the protestors. The main concern over the proposal is that it will “bring abortion to Malta” and that women will be eligible for abortion for mental health or trival reasons. Abortion in Malta is banned and criminalised. Anyone who undergoes abortion or provides abortion services in Malta can be jailed from 18 months to three years in prison. (“Thousands gather in Valletta to protest abortion law reform,” Times of Malta, 04 December 2022)
THE UK
Fusion robots to help in UK’s fusion energy research
On 05 December, GOV.UK, reported on the advancement in UK’s space industry. UK Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) and the Satellite Applications Catapult have shown the use of remote handling and robot technology in the fusion energy research. The maintaining of in-orbit satellites and energy creation from the fusion is observed as sustainable way for future energy supply and for the smooth functioning of the process in-orbit servicing is an area to be addressed. According to Catapult Robotics Development Lead Jeremy Hadall, the robots is seen as a boon to improve “close-proximity operations,” and open up for commercial collaborations. (“Fusion robots at work in the UK space industry,” Gov.UK, 05 December 2022)
39 Albanian migrant children go missing from Kent
On 04 December, BBC reported that out of the 197 Albanian children taken in by Kent City Council 39 have gone missing. These children were unaccompanied migrants who came to the UK by crossing the English Channel. The numbers according to Ecpat UK’s head of policy, advocacy and research Laura Durán are “really high” and Ecpat UK fears that they are at risk of exploitation and trafficking. The average age of the missing children is said to be around 18 years. Kent City Council reported that there has been an increase in the number of unaccompanied Albanian children and that "Whilst all unaccompanied asylum-seeking children are vulnerable to exploitation... research and experience evidences that some nationalities are particularly vulnerable and can go missing from local authority care very quickly.” (“Channel crossings: Dozens of Albanian child migrants go missing,” BBC, 04 December 2022)
Rail workers union refuse pay rise offer
On 04 December, The UK’s RMT union refused the four per cent increase in pay offer of the Rail Delivery Group. The Group had put forth an offer of a pay rise of eight per cent over two years to halt further strikes by the National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers (RMT). The RMT General Secretary Mick Lynch said: "We have rejected this offer as it does not meet any of our criteria for securing a settlement on long-term job security, a decent pay rise and protecting working conditions." The RMT announced that they would be organising strikes in December and January which would hamper travel before and after Christmas. The union has organised many strikes this year over the issue of an increase in payment due to the increased cost-of-living crisis. (“British rail workers union rejects offer aimed at averting strikes,” Reuters, 05 December 2022)
RUSSIA
2500 dead Caspian seals found in Dagestan
On 04 December, Russian officials reported that 2500 Caspian seals were found dead in Dagestan on the Caspian Sea coast. The first set of carcasses was found on 03 December and was reported by the North Caucasus Territorial Administration of Rosrybolovstvo and the total amount dead was pegged at 650-700 seals. This number increased drastically as more of the coast was explored and in total 2500 seals were found. The reason for the death of all the seals has not yet been determined but according to the Russian Ministry of Natural Sciences, it was due to natural causes due to emissions of natural gas. The ministry said that the death of thousands of seals will not affect their population in the Caspian Sea as they have a population of around 300,000 seals in the region. (“2,500 Caspian seals found dead along Russian coastline,” The Guardian, 05 December 2022; “Thousands of dead Red Book seals were found in Dagestan,” Lenta.ru, 05 December 2022)
REGIONAL
Sweden extradites convicted PKK member to Turkey
On 03 December, Swedish authorities extradite PKK member Mahmut Tat to Turkey. Tat is a suspected member of the PKK group and was sentenced to jail for six years and 10 months in jail for the same in Turkey. He then fled to Sweden in 2015 where he applied for asylum but was denied. On 02 December night, Tat was extradited to Turkey where he was presented in front of a court on 03 December. This is a part of Sweden’s contribution to support Turkey in its mission to counter the PKK and in return secure Turkey’s support for NATO membership. ("Sweden extradites suspected PKK terror group member to Turkey,” The Local se, 03 December 2022; "Sweden extradites PKK/KCK terror group member to Türkiye,” Anadolu Agency, 03 December 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Slovakia and Taiwan sign three MOUs to boost trade
On 02 December, Slovakian and Taiwanese officials met in Bratislava where the two parties signed three memorandums of understanding (MOUs). The three MOUs were signed to increase bilateral trade, exchanges between start-ups and collaborations in the semiconductor industry. The meeting was the second session of Taiwanese- Slovak Commission on Economic Cooperation. The two sides also discussed furthering relations in renewable energy, biotechnology and science and space programmes in the future. (“Taiwan, Slovakia sign MOUs on bilateral trade,” Taipei Times, 05 December 2022)